Global personal computer shipments declined by more than 20% during the third quarter of 2026, marking the biggest drop recorded for this quarter according to IDC data, while Omdia described the decline as the steepest since the first quarter of 2023. The decline comes despite third-quarter shipments usually exceeding second-quarter levels.
IDC estimated third-quarter shipments at 62.7 million units, compared with 78.5 million during the same period in 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 20.1%. Shipments also fell 9.1% compared with the second quarter, which recorded 68.2 million units. According to Omdia, shipments amounted to 58.1 million units, down 21.2% year on year, with the differing figures between the two firms resulting from differences in measurement methodologies and coverage scope.
Desktop and Laptop Shipments Decline
Omdia’s data covered laptops, desktop computers, and workstations. Shipments of desktop computers, including desktop workstations, fell 23.5% to 11.7 million units, while shipments of laptops and mobile workstations declined 20.6% to 46.4 million units.
Memory Raises Costs and Weighs on Demand
Analysts link the decline to rising component costs, particularly memory and storage. Rising demand for HBM and DRAM memory used in artificial intelligence servers since 2025 has reduced the manufacturing capacity available for consumer devices, including computers, phones, and gaming consoles.
Ben Yeh, a principal analyst at Omdia, said memory and storage now account for approximately 40% of the cost of materials used to manufacture a computer, compared with about 15% typically, while computer prices have risen by more than fourfold. Repeated price increases were unable to fully offset the pressure.
What Is Changing in Practice?
Anticipating memory price increases, a number of manufacturers and sales channels increased their inventories early in the year, reducing remaining demand in the third quarter and leaving channels with elevated quantities in a market where prices had become an obstacle for buyers. This situation may lead to temporary promotional offers, but IDC does not expect prices to return to the previous year’s levels.
Manufacturers and their original equipment manufacturing partners also began cutting production during the third quarter, as commercial channels continued to clear inventory. This means that market pressure is not caused by weak demand alone, but by the interaction of higher prices with purchasing and production decisions and inventory management.
A More Difficult Outlook
Omdia expects computer shipments to decline 24% year on year in the following quarter, followed by a 7% decline during 2027. IDC said prices may fall modestly and only for a short period, while executive comments from Micron and Samsung indicated that component shortages could continue through 2028.
Additional constraints include processors, graphics cards, and a number of integrated-circuit components, making planning more difficult for manufacturers. Based on the available data, the open question is not only whether the market will experience another decline, but also whether component prices and manufacturing capacity will allow demand to return without a new wave of inventory accumulation.