Investment and financial analysis firm Loop Capital has downgraded its rating on Apple stock from a "Buy" recommendation to "Hold," asserting that the American company will likely be unable to make up for approximately 13 million missing shipment units from its iPhone production plans for the second half of 2026. Under this adjustment, the firm lowered its price target for Apple stock from $370 to $330.
Shifting Outlook and Supply Chain
Loop Capital previously believed that memory and processor supply bottlenecks led to shipment delays that Apple would be able to catch up on and recover during 2027. However, the firm's latest supply chain checks led it to completely abandon this assumption. As a result, the firm now expects 79 million iPhone units to be shipped during the December quarter, a level falling below the initial estimate of 85 million units. It also expects a decline in the average selling price per device, lowering its projection from $1,239 to $1,123.
Fragmented Release Schedule and Financial Impact
Analysts are facing greater difficulty in assessing Apple's financial prospects due to the widely publicized fragmented phone release schedule. iPhone 18 Pro models arrived last September, while the iPhone Duo was launched on October 23, whereas the standard iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and iPhone Air 2 models are not expected to arrive until the spring of 2027.
In a related context, research firm Counterpoint Research attributed a large part of Apple's third-quarter shipment decline to the absence of the standard model at its usual time. Despite this, Apple successfully secured a record market share of 22% during the third quarter, even though global smartphone shipments dropped by 20% year-over-year.
2027 Outlook and Revenue
Looking at the full year 2027, Loop Capital expects Apple to ship quantities of iPhones exceeding its previous estimates, bringing the total to 260 million units. Nevertheless, the firm anticipates that these phones will be sold at a lower average price, prompting it to cut its iPhone segment revenue forecast from $315 billion to $285 billion, alongside potential pressures on the company's earnings resulting from rising memory costs.