Novaspace expects more than 6,500 satellites dedicated to Earth observation to be launched by 2035, in a market that could generate manufacturing revenues of $155.9 billion, according to the latest edition of its report on Earth observation satellite systems. The report links this growth to governments’ expansion of sovereign intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, alongside the growing role of commercial operators in providing these capabilities.
Federico Banfi, a consultant at Novaspace, said that the rules of competition in the market are changing, explaining that defense-sector users are increasingly requesting sovereign access to Earth observation capabilities, while commercial operators are becoming essential partners in delivering them. According to him, this shift is reflected in constellation design, sensor strategies and the Earth observation market structure overall.
From Image Resolution to Persistent Surveillance
Historically, the performance of Earth observation satellites was assessed largely on the basis of image resolution. Current defense needs, according to the report, are increasingly focused on revisit speed, persistent surveillance capabilities and broad-area coverage. This is driving greater demand for larger constellations capable of collecting data at a higher frequency, rather than relying on a limited number of satellites or improving resolution alone.
Constellations Combining Multiple Sensors
The report also observes the accelerating adoption of multisensor constellations that combine synthetic aperture radar (SAR) payloads, optical sensors and radio-frequency (RF) payloads. Combining these sources enables a more comprehensive and flexible picture of Earth, while reducing reliance on a single type of data when addressing growing defense requirements.
What Is Changing in Practice in the Satellite Market?
The report points to the rise of what Novaspace calls the “Skyscraper Model.” In this model, satellite platforms become more standardized, while value shifts increasingly toward integrating advanced payloads and adding multiple layers of intelligence. This means that competition is not focused solely on manufacturing the satellite bus or operating platform, but also encompasses sensor integration, data management and the ability to operate diverse systems.
As constellations expand and become more complex, the report expects demand to increase for interoperability, linking or “federating” fleets, and tools for managing satellite groups. It also sees these trends driving greater convergence between the commercial and defense markets, placing sovereign Earth observation capabilities at the center of market growth through 2035.
Report Scope
The Novaspace report provides a global assessment of the space systems market for Earth observation, covering commercial, civil government and unclassified defense satellites. The report examines supply and demand data for satellites launched during the previous decade and those expected to be launched through 2035, with a focus on the evolution of the manufacturing and launch markets.
The accompanying database includes information on satellites that have been launched or are expected to be launched, such as the operator, manufacturer, mass, mission type, sensor type, resolution and other characteristics.