Ericsson warned in its June 2026 Mobility Report that mobile networks are facing a shift in the nature of demand, as 5G subscriptions expand, data consumption rises, and artificial intelligence applications that rely more heavily on sending data to the network become widespread. According to the report’s scenarios, Uplink traffic generated by artificial intelligence applications could increase by between three and five times by 2031 compared with 2025.
Ericsson explained that mobile networks have traditionally been designed to accommodate greater traffic in the downlink direction, while applications such as AI-enabled smartphones, AI glasses and augmented reality, and autonomous vehicles require continuous data transmission to the network. This means that improving downlink capacity alone will not be sufficient to handle future usage patterns.
5G Expansion Increases the Pressure
5G networks added 162 million new subscriptions during the first quarter of 2026, bringing the global total to 3.1 billion subscriptions. Ericsson expects the number to rise to 6.4 billion subscriptions by 2031, equivalent to around two-thirds of total mobile subscriptions. It also expects 5G to surpass 4G as the primary access technology by subscription numbers by the end of 2027.
According to the report, around 390 communications service providers have launched commercial 5G services, while more than 90 operators have launched standalone 5G services, 5G SA. However, 5G SA growth has been slower than previously expected, with a slowdown anticipated in India during the latter part of the forecast period, alongside challenges in markets across Latin America, Europe, and the Middle East. Ericsson estimates the number of 5G SA subscriptions at approximately 3.9 billion in 2031.
What Is Changing in Practice?
Ericsson expects mobile data traffic to grow 2.2 times between 2025 and 2031, while total mobile network data traffic, including fixed wireless access FWA, could grow 2.5 times. 5G’s share of mobile data traffic will rise from 48% in 2025 to 85% in 2031, driven by extended reality, connected devices, and multimodal artificial intelligence applications.
These forecasts indicate that the challenge for operators will shift from merely adding sites and expanding coverage to rebalancing network capacity between the uplink and downlink. The report states that the response will include improvements to 5G network software and components, with future innovation specifically designed for the uplink in 6G networks also needed. The report does not identify, in the available material, specific technologies or products that will drive this transformation.
FWA and the Sixth Generation Add New Demand
FWA connections are expected to increase from 185 million at the end of 2025 to 350 million at the end of 2031, with 5G powering around 85% of them. Nearly 1.4 billion people could benefit from broadband services through this technology, while FWA data traffic could reach 187 exabytes per month, representing around 36% of total mobile network data traffic.
Ericsson also expects satellite broadband subscriptions to increase from 10 million to 33 million between 2025 and 2031. As for the first commercial sixth-generation services, they are expected to appear around 2030, with subscriptions reaching approximately 180 million by the end of 2031. These figures remain forecasts, and slower 5G SA growth and coverage gaps could affect the speed at which they materialize; 5G population coverage outside China stood at around 50% in 2025, compared with approximately 90% for 4G coverage.