U.S. data centers could become one of the world’s largest consumers of natural gas over the next decade, driven by the rapid expansion of the infrastructure needed to operate artificial intelligence applications. According to a new forecast from BloombergNEF, these centers’ consumption could reach about 18 billion cubic feet of gas per day by 2035, more than Germany and Japan’s combined consumption.
The report ranks data centers as the second-largest source of natural gas demand growth over the next 10 years, after liquefied natural gas exports. This estimate comes despite accounting for the possibility that not all announced data center projects will be completed, meaning it is not simply based on adding up all announced investment plans.
Expansion Beyond On-Site Generation Plants
On-site power generation projects at data centers have attracted significant attention in recent months. Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have announced plans to build natural gas-fired plants to power new facilities without fully relying on the electricity grid.
BloombergNEF expects these projects to consume between 2.9 billion and 3.4 billion cubic feet of gas per day by 2035. That is close to the total currently consumed by data centers, including the gas used to generate the electricity they receive through the grid. However, the report finds that on-site generation will account for only part of the expected demand growth.
The Electricity Grid Is the Biggest Demand Driver
By the middle of the next decade, grid-connected data centers could add 15 billion cubic feet per day to the power sector’s natural gas consumption. According to the comparison in the report, this is five times the expected demand growth from all other grid-connected sectors combined through 2035.
The distinction matters in practical terms: Public discussion often focuses on the gas plants technology companies are building near their facilities, while most of the increase may come through power plants and distribution networks that serve data centers and other consumers at the same time. The impact of the expansion therefore extends beyond data center operators to utilities and local energy markets.
Why Does This Estimate Matter?
A large share of current data center construction plans depends on natural gas prices remaining relatively stable. However, Noreva analysts believe this assumption may not withstand the combination of two factors: the data center boom and rising liquefied natural gas exports. If the projected demand growth materializes, gas prices could rise, adding costs to the operation of digital infrastructure.
Even if technology companies can absorb the increase, the situation may be different for utility customers who pay electricity bills. This is an important editorial point: The cost of artificial intelligence does not appear only in cloud service prices or capital investments; it can also be passed on to local energy markets and consumers who share the grid.
The Climate Cost and Open Questions
The report links this trajectory to rising emissions. According to International Energy Agency data cited by the source, burning one cubic foot of natural gas releases the equivalent of 60 grams of carbon dioxide, including emissions associated with extraction, processing, and distribution. The source estimates that the additional demand resulting from data centers could add one million metric tons of greenhouse gases per day, a figure it presents as about 12% of current total U.S. emissions.
The estimate does not prove that this scenario will definitely occur, but it illustrates the scale of the energy wager accompanying the artificial intelligence race. Questions of execution and cost remain decisive: How many of the announced projects will actually be completed? And will gas prices remain stable as domestic demand and exports grow? The report also notes that evaluating data centers solely by their computing capacity may obscure a broader impact on the grid, energy prices, and emissions.