A report issued by the analytics firm "Quilty Space" confirmed that the world is facing a severe shortage of space carrier rockets outside of China over the next five years, amid growing demand from satellite operators and civilian agencies, with expectations that the crisis will peak in 2028.
The company estimates that the period leading up to 2030 will witness a deficit of about 150 launch operations compared to actual demand, a figure that could double if the increasing demand from the US military is taken into account, especially as "SpaceX" moves toward phasing out the "Falcon 9" rocket program dedicated to commercial services without providing large-scale traditional alternatives.
Causes of the Worsening Space Launch Crisis
This escalating crisis is attributed to several interrelated factors, including the withdrawal of Russian rockets from the Western market as a result of the war in Ukraine, the massive demand associated with the "Amazon Leo" network project, as well as recurring developmental delays in the new generation of rockets such as "New Glenn", "Vulcan", "Neutron", and "Terran R".
The Role of SpaceX and Starship Rockets
SpaceX's "Starship" vehicle has the potential to solve the crisis thanks to its massive payload capacity and rapid reusability; however, the company has not marketed it as a traditional commercial launch option for the general public, and indicators point to the absence of plans to develop a traditional door for conventional satellite payloads, settling instead for the narrow door design dedicated to the Starlink network.
In this context, Dan Goldberg, CEO of "Telesat", pointed out that utilizing Starship rockets in the future may require companies to design flat satellites that are compatible with SpaceX's current deployment system.
What is Changing Practically?
The satellite sector is facing immense operational pressures that require companies to plan early, as analysts emphasize that anyone who has not booked a launch pad by now is far too late. Other factors such as the launch pace of Blue Origin's "New Glenn" rocket and the increasing military demands of the US Space Force remain the primary variables that could either ease the severity of the crisis or keep it burning until the late 2030s.